True — and it produces the biggest numbers you should least trust.
The 21:00–22:00 UTC rollover shows the largest directional effects anywhere on our board — EUR/GBP closes higher 59.6% against 48.2% elsewhere. It is also the thinnest liquidity of the weekday: EUR/USD moves 59% of its normal size there. A strong-looking edge you cannot actually collect, which is why this site flags rollover buckets rather than promoting them.
| Market | In the window | Rest | z | Movement | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | 59.6% | 48.2% | 14.0 | 119% of normal | 4,049 |
| EUR/USD | 53.3% | 49.7% | 6.8 | 59% of normal | 9,861 |
| GBP/JPY | 54.3% | 50.7% | 5.8 | 87% of normal | 6,949 |
| USD/CAD | 52.2% | 49.4% | 5.4 | 82% of normal | 9,893 |
| AUD/USD | 47.5% | 50.2% | -5.0 | 103% of normal | 9,551 |
| EUR/JPY | 53.0% | 50.5% | 4.5 | 83% of normal | 8,741 |
Every claim here reduces to a window on the clock or the calendar, so it can simply be checked. We compare the claimed window against the rest of the week on 23 years of hourly data across 19 markets, measuring two separate things the folklore tends to conflate: direction (does the window close higher more often?) via a two-proportion z-test, and movement (is the average move bigger or smaller?). A window can be perfectly ordinary in direction and genuinely quieter in movement — saying which is the entire point.
The bar here is |z| ≥ 2, deliberately more lenient than the |z| ≥ 3 this site applies to its own numbers: when testing someone else's claim, failing to reject it even at a lenient bar is the stronger statement.