Trading myths, tested

Forex folklore is full of timing rules stated with total confidence and no number attached. Every one of them is a claim about a weekday, an hour or a month — and we hold 23 years of exactly those. So we checked 21 of them.

Each page states the claim as its believers state it, cites who says it, and reports what all 19 markets actually did — including the claims that turned out to be true, and the ones where the honest answer is that our data cannot settle it.

Should You Avoid Trading on Monday?Mostly false — and backwards for indices.Never trade Monday — the market is still waking up from the weekend.Is Early Monday Morning Too Thin to Trade?True — on movement.Early Monday specifically is thin and choppy before London opens.Is Friday Afternoon Too Choppy to Trade?True, but mis-explained.Avoid Friday afternoon — position squaring makes it choppy and risky.Is the Asian Session Worth Trading?Half true — and it depends entirely on your pair.The Asian session is not worth trading — low liquidity, no movement.Are Tuesday to Thursday the Best Days to Trade?False.Tuesday to Thursday are the most active, trending days.Is the Santa Claus Rally Real?Not answerable for stocks. Real, and in the wrong asset, for metals.December rallies — the Santa Claus effect lifts markets into year end.Is August Really Dead in Forex?Half right — and quieter is not the same as safer.August is dead — desks on holiday, thin liquidity, nothing moves.Is the First Hour After the London Open a Fakeout?False — with one real exception.Avoid the first hour after the London open — it is a violent fakeout.Is Tuesday 120–130% More Volatile Than Monday?False — and it is the rare claim stated with a number.Tuesday volatility runs 120-130% of Monday.Is Friday Really Worse Than Monday?Mostly supported — the closest any folklore came to surviving whole.Monday and Friday are the two worst days, and Friday is worse of the two.Should You Avoid the Wednesday Triple-Swap Rollover?Unproven — held loosely on purpose.Wednesday carries triple swap, so its rollover is the one to avoid.Should You Wait for Tokyo Instead of Trading the Sunday Open?True — and it is the best example of why a big number can be untradeable.The Sunday open gaps and spreads are wide - wait for Tokyo.Does "Sell in May and Go Away" Work?We cannot tell you — and that is the honest answer.Sell in May and go away - Nov-Apr beats May-Oct.Should You Stop Trading From June to August?Quieter, yes. Biased, no.Cut trading frequency from June to August - the whole summer is dead.Is the London Kill Zone the Most Important Window?No — it is an ordinary hour.ICT London kill zone (02:00-05:00 NY) sets the directional move for the day.Is the New York Kill Zone Worth Trading?Yes — and it outranks London, which is the reverse of what is taught.ICT New York kill zone (07:00-10:00 NY) - the second most important window.Does the Asian Kill Zone Just Range?No — it is the most directional of the four.ICT Asian kill zone (20:00-22:00 NY) ranges rather than trends.What Actually Drives the ICT London Close Kill Zone?Real, but named after the wrong end of itself.ICT London close kill zone (10:00-12:00 NY) is a tradeable reversal window.Are ICT Kill Zones Real?Yes — the framework holds in all 19 markets.The kill zones are the only hours worth trading.Does the 4pm London Fix Move the Market?Yes — and it is measurably calmer since the 2015 reform.The 4pm London fix hour behaves differently - the benchmark banks were fined for rigging.Should You Avoid the Daily Rollover?True — and it produces the biggest numbers you should least trust.The 21:00–22:00 UTC rollover is thin liquidity to be avoided.

Why we publish the ones we got wrong

Two of these pages exist because a test we ran contradicted something we had already written, and one exists because a prediction of ours was refuted by our own data. Those stayed in. A page that only ever confirms its author is not evidence of anything except the author.

Test your own hour →