The blog the data writes

When does each market actually rise?

One article per symbol, generated from the same dataset the dashboard serves. Every percentage carries its sample size; every strong claim carries its caveat. No signals — measured base rates.

We measured the advice everyone gives

"Trade the London–New York overlap" is the most repeated answer in this category. It is well evidenced on volume — that window is about 19% of the day and carries over a third of daily turnover, with the tightest spreads. What nobody publishes is the other number: is the 12:00–16:00 UTC window actually more likely to close higher than the rest of the day? We tested that on all 19 markets.

18of 19 markets show no directional edge in the overlap

1where the gap beats chance — Silver (XAG/USD)

That does not make the advice worthless — the overlap is genuinely where liquidity is deepest and spreads are tightest, which is a cost argument. It just is not an edge in which way price closes, and the difference matters. Each article shows its own table.

The claims this category sells, tested

12 questions this business sells reports about — the weekend gap, yesterday's high and low, the opening range, where the day's high forms, the opening candle, the crypto weekend, the New York close, the trading day of the month, hot streaks, what spread kills an edge, whether to wait for volatility, and the one everybody searches for: when is the best time to trade. Each is a real pattern with a real number attached. Each also has a control that nobody prints, and the control is what settles it. One article per question, with every market's own table.

Do weekend gaps fill?"Gaps fill 90% of the time" is true and empty — a matched midweek move fills just as often. The indices do the opposite. 89% vs 88% — gaps filled within a day, against the control Does yesterday's high or low matter?68,762 breaks across 19 markets. The level holds 50.4% of the time — slightly less than an arbitrary level the same distance away. 50.4% vs 50.9% — breaks that held, against the control Does the opening range set the day?The range breaks on 99.8–100.0% of days. A signal that fires every session has not selected anything. 100.0% — of sessions break the range — it selects nothing When does the day's high and low actually form?"The high forms at the open" is the boundary you chose, not the market. Move it and every single market changes its answer. 0 of 19 — markets keep their answer when the day boundary moves Does the first hour set the day?A green first hour tells you the first hour was green. Not one of 17 markets reaches even a weak significance bar. -0.01 pts — is what a green first hour is worth, against its control The best time to trade forexThe overlap is real — as a movement and cost argument, not a direction one. The half that survives a holdout is WHEN, not which way. 2.41× — is what the overlap moves against a typical hour Does Bitcoin move on the weekend?The weekend is an ordinary trading period whose timetable is a different timetable — the biggest hour moves from 14:00 to 00:00 UTC. 0.85× — is what a weekend hour moves, against a weekday one in BTC Why does every currency pair fall at the New York close?The biggest number this archive contains, and it is worth about one tick: 12 of 12 markets fall, and 11 of them by less than the spread. 12 of 12 — markets close down in that hour — and it is worth about one tick Does the trading day of the month matter?The chart this whole category is built on. 285 slots tested, 0 clear the bar, and the strongest anywhere reaches z = 2.99. 0 of 285 — day-of-month slots clear our bar — the axis the category is built on Should you only trade when the market is busy?The most repeated filter in this business, and it points the wrong way: 14 of 14 markets are LESS reliable after a big hour. -2 pts — is what waiting for a busy market does to a flagged window What spread kills a seasonal edge?The hour's MOVE beats a round trip in 471 of 471 liquid windows. The directional EDGE beats it in 3. 1.28× — is all the median alerted rule clears its assumed cost by Does a hot streak mean anything?A streak is as predictive at four weeks' lag as at one. Memory decays; drift does not — which is why there is no streak feature on this site. 0.91 pts — is what a hot streak is worth, and it does not fade with time

Every market, one article each

Roughly 96% of the simple time-of-day rules we backtested on this dataset lose after costs. The articles link to the board that shows which ones did not — losers included.