Measured, not guessed · 2013..2026 of H1 data

When does US30 (Dow) actually rise?

Every hour below is a real measurement: how often US30 (Dow) closed higher than it opened in that hour of the week, across 60,304 hourly bars. Not signals — base rates, with the sample size on every figure.

The strongest and weakest hours

Averaged across the trading week, the hour that has leaned up hardest is 18:00 UTC — US30 (Dow) closed higher 53.9% of 2,812 times there, far enough from a coin flip to be beyond chance. The weakest is 22:00 UTC, closing higher only 48.5% of 1,549 times.

Hour × weekday, the whole picture

Colour is the up-rate — red leaned down, teal leaned up. The brass dot marks buckets whose lean is statistically beyond chance at |z|≥3. Most cells have no dot. That is the honest shape of the market: mostly noise, with a few stubborn corners.

No single weekday-hour bucket of US30 (Dow) clears the |z|≥3 bar. That is a finding, not a failure — most markets, most of the time, are indistinguishable from chance at this resolution.

Days and seasons

Weekday	Up-rate	Sample
Monday	51.5%	n=11,935
Tuesday	50.9%	n=12,182
Wednesday	51.4%	n=12,086
Thursday	51.6%	n=12,197
Friday	51.7%	n=11,210
Sunday	53.6%	n=694

Friday has been the friendliest day (51.7% of 11,210), Tuesday the least (50.9%). By calendar month, November leads at 52.7% and December trails at 50.3% — month buckets carry roughly a twelfth of the sample each, so hold them more loosely than the hourly figures.

Did any of it survive a real backtest?

Colours are description. A different question is whether a simple rule built on them — enter at the open of a bucket, exit at its close, pay a realistic spread — would have made money, and kept making it on data it was never fitted to. We ran that test across 5,086 rules on the whole board: 307 finished net positive, and only 214 survived the held-out final third of the history.

34 of those survivors run on US30 (Dow). The strategy board lists every one — including the losers, because a leaderboard that only shows winners is lying by omission.

Watch it live

These are the same numbers, updating as each hour begins — free to embed on your own site from the widget builder:

Read it without fooling yourself

• The percentage is the headline, not the story. 53.9% from 2,812 samples is information; the same figure from 40 samples is noise. Every number here carries its n.
• The dots matter more than the colours. A vivid cell with no dot is well inside what chance produces.
• Direction is free; getting paid is not. A reliable lean smaller than your spread costs more than it earns.
• These are frequencies, not forecasts. 8 years of "usually" contains every kind of "except when".

The guide walks through all four traps with live numbers.