Measured, not guessed · 2020..2026 of H1 data

When does NAS100 actually rise?

Every hour below is a real measurement: how often NAS100 closed higher than it opened in that hour of the week, across 38,841 hourly bars. Not signals — base rates, with the sample size on every figure.

The strongest and weakest hours

Averaged across the trading week, the hour that has leaned up hardest is 15:00 UTC — NAS100 closed higher 55.4% of 1,698 times there, far enough from a coin flip to be beyond chance. The weakest is 21:00 UTC, closing higher only 48.1% of 551 times.

Hour × weekday, the whole picture

Colour is the up-rate — red leaned down, teal leaned up. The brass dot marks buckets whose lean is statistically beyond chance at |z|≥3. Most cells have no dot. That is the honest shape of the market: mostly noise, with a few stubborn corners.

The three most stubborn corners of the grid:

• Monday 18:00 UTC — closed higher 60.1% of 308 times (z=3.5)
• Thursday 00:00 UTC — closed higher 58.8% of 342 times (z=3.2)
• Monday 14:00 UTC — closed higher 58.2% of 340 times (z=3.0)

Days and seasons

Weekday	Up-rate	Sample
Monday	53.9%	n=7,676
Tuesday	51.8%	n=7,857
Wednesday	52.3%	n=7,827
Thursday	52.6%	n=7,807
Friday	51.0%	n=7,109
Sunday	53.6%	n=565

Monday has been the friendliest day (53.9% of 7,676), Friday the least (51.0%). By calendar month, October leads at 53.7% and March trails at 51.3% — month buckets carry roughly a twelfth of the sample each, so hold them more loosely than the hourly figures.

Did any of it survive a real backtest?

Colours are description. A different question is whether a simple rule built on them — enter at the open of a bucket, exit at its close, pay a realistic spread — would have made money, and kept making it on data it was never fitted to. We ran that test across 5,086 rules on the whole board: 307 finished net positive, and only 214 survived the held-out final third of the history.

None of the survivors run on NAS100 once spread costs are charged. The strategy board shows that too — a leaderboard that only shows winners is lying by omission.

Watch it live

These are the same numbers, updating as each hour begins — free to embed on your own site from the widget builder:

Read it without fooling yourself

• The percentage is the headline, not the story. 55.4% from 1,698 samples is information; the same figure from 40 samples is noise. Every number here carries its n.
• The dots matter more than the colours. A vivid cell with no dot is well inside what chance produces.
• Direction is free; getting paid is not. A reliable lean smaller than your spread costs more than it earns.
• These are frequencies, not forecasts. 5 years of "usually" contains every kind of "except when".

The guide walks through all four traps with live numbers.